Q4 2025 Outlook: A Seasonal Step-Down - But Still Up on Last Year

Chuck Parker, CEO, Sohonet

Oct 1, 2025

5 min read

%20(2).png)

After a late-summer surge, the market is behaving more “normally” again. That means momentum crests into October, then eases through November and December. The key difference vs. last year: even with that seasonal fade, Q4 2025 is tracking modestly higher than Q4 2024 and early signals for January point to a stronger start to 2026.

The headline numbers

Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024

• Q4 2024 actual: 143 new scripted starts (US/UK/CA scope).
• Q4 2025 (updated forecast): 155, with an October-heavy mix: 89 (Oct) + 41 (Nov) + 25 (Dec).

Q4’25 is forecast modestly above Q4’24, but skewed to October:
.png)

Why it looks like a “drop” from Q3: Q3 was the rebound quarter. We saw a strong late-summer lift and expect October to carry some of that peak before activity tapers into year-end - classic seasonal patterns reasserting themselves after an abnormally muted H1. (In the September report: Q3 pacing +55% vs. Q2 and +20% vs. Q3’24, which set up this late-year peak.)

How we got here

• August dipped after July’s jump. August new starts fell ~25% vs. July (still slightly above August ’24), which we flagged in mid-September. That softer August is precisely why our smoothed view shows the peak sliding later into October rather than August (as in 2024).
• Q3’s strength remains clear. Our mid-September cut anticipated Q3 finishing ~55% above Q2 and ~20% above Q3 2024, even after trimming prior estimates - evidence that the late-summer “real work” phase arrived.

What to expect in Q4

• Seasonal cool-down, not a stall. With an October peak, November and December quiet down, hence the 89/41/25 monthly split in our updated Q4 forecast. That still leaves Q4 2025 modestly up on Q4 2024 on our new model.
• Context from our September report: As of mid-September, our smoothed indicator was expected to rise through September and October and crest near the 2024 peak, just later in the calendar this time.

Early 2026 read

A very early view on January 2026 suggests it is tracking ~25% above January 2025. We’ll keep this marked “tentative,” but it aligns with the thesis that the current dip is seasonal, not structural.

Momentum peaks later in 2025 due to a slow H1 and stronger late-summer ramp:

Risks we're watching

Policy Risk: Over the past 48 hours, the White House and major outlets have stoked renewed discussion of tariffs impacting media imports - from broad tariff moves to revived talk of tariffs on foreign-made films. If implemented, such measures could pressure non-US shoots, cross-border post, and distribution economics—potentially softening the early-2026 lift if confidence wobbles. (Coverage of the renewed film-tariff push resurfaced on September 29; broader tariff actions were highlighted on September 30. (Vanity Fair article)

A few more signals from September's tracking

• “Smoothed” market activity is poised to lift through October, echoing 2024’s peak, only later this year due to the weak start.
• August detail: 74 new productions tracked; mix skewed smaller (no $100M+), which also tugged the smoothed curve.
• Budget stability: Outside of the 2023 anomaly, average production size has been remarkably consistent 2021–2025; overall volume (counts) is what’s driven the downturn in 2024–2025.
• Regionally: UK and Canada have shown sustained growth over the last two months, approaching peak levels; July–August also saw episodic projects shift from the US to Canada at notable rates.
• Run-rate view: We still expected an uptick in September and October that pulls 2025’s running total closer to 2024 by year-end.

What it means for studios, streamers, and vendors

• October is the crunch. Lock stages, talent, and finishing capacity early; expect shorter notice and tighter booking windows.
• Staffing: Crew availability tightens around the October peak; pencil alternates for late-Nov/Dec gaps.
• Q1 2026 prep: Given the early read on January, treat Nov/Dec as planning months, front-load greenlight decisions and onboarding, especially for shows relocating or co-producing across borders.
• Keep an eye on policy headlines: Any tariff action that changes the math on non-US shoots could shift budgets, location choices, and release calendars on short notice. ‍

Notes and methodology

Figures reflect scripted, live-action projects across the US/UK/Canada. “New productions” = starts in-month; “smoothed” spreads budget over the active shoot to show market activity by month. September narrative and charts reference our September cut and an updated October forecast model for Q4. Internal sources referenced: September ’25 Smart Production Tracking report and SPI launch plan.