# Q4 2025 Outlook: A Seasonal Step-Down - But Still Up on Last Year

Chuck Parker, CEO, Sohonet

Oct 1, 2025

5 min read

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After a late-summer surge, the market is behaving more “normally” again. That means momentum crests into October, then eases through November and December. The key difference vs. last year: even with that seasonal fade, Q4 2025 is tracking modestly higher than Q4 2024 and early signals for January point to a stronger start to 2026.

### The headline numbers

**Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024**

- Q4 2024 actual: 143 new scripted starts (US/UK/CA scope).
- Q4 2025 (updated forecast): 155, with an October-heavy mix: 89 (Oct) + 41 (Nov) + 25 (Dec).

**Q4’25 is forecast modestly above Q4’24, but skewed to October:**  
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Why it looks like a “drop” from Q3: Q3 was the rebound quarter. We saw a strong late-summer lift and expect October to carry some of that peak before activity tapers into year-end - classic seasonal patterns reasserting themselves after an abnormally muted H1. (In the September report: Q3 pacing +55% vs. Q2 and +20% vs. Q3’24, which set up this late-year peak.)

### How we got here

- August dipped after July’s jump. August new starts fell ~25% vs. July (still slightly above August ’24), which we flagged in mid-September. That softer August is precisely why our smoothed view shows the peak sliding later into October rather than August (as in 2024).
- Q3’s strength remains clear. Our mid-September cut anticipated Q3 finishing ~55% above Q2 and ~20% above Q3 2024, even after trimming prior estimates - evidence that the late-summer “real work” phase arrived.

### What to expect in Q4

- Seasonal cool-down, not a stall. With an October peak, November and December quiet down, hence the 89/41/25 monthly split in our updated Q4 forecast. That still leaves Q4 2025 modestly up on Q4 2024 on our new model.
- Context from our September report: As of mid-September, our smoothed indicator was expected to rise through September and October and crest near the 2024 peak, just later in the calendar this time.

### Early 2026 read

A very early view on January 2026 suggests it is tracking ~25% above January 2025. We’ll keep this marked “tentative,” but it aligns with the thesis that the current dip is seasonal, not structural.

**Momentum peaks later in 2025 due to a slow H1 and stronger late-summer ramp:**

### Risks we're watching

**Policy Risk:** Over the past 48 hours, the White House and major outlets have stoked renewed discussion of tariffs impacting media imports - from broad tariff moves to revived talk of tariffs on foreign-made films. If implemented, such measures could pressure non-US shoots, cross-border post, and distribution economics—potentially softening the early-2026 lift if confidence wobbles. (Coverage of the renewed film-tariff push resurfaced on September 29; broader tariff actions were highlighted on September 30. [(Vanity Fair article)](https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/story/trump-international-movie-tariff-oscars?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

### A few more signals from September's tracking

- “Smoothed” market activity is poised to lift through October, echoing 2024’s peak, only later this year due to the weak start.
- August detail: 74 new productions tracked; mix skewed smaller (no $100M+), which also tugged the smoothed curve.
- Budget stability: Outside of the 2023 anomaly, average production size has been remarkably consistent 2021–2025; overall volume (counts) is what’s driven the downturn in 2024–2025.
- Regionally: UK and Canada have shown sustained growth over the last two months, approaching peak levels; July–August also saw episodic projects shift from the US to Canada at notable rates.
- Run-rate view: We still expected an uptick in September and October that pulls 2025’s running total closer to 2024 by year-end.

### What it means for studios, streamers, and vendors

- October is the crunch. Lock stages, talent, and finishing capacity early; expect shorter notice and tighter booking windows.
- Staffing: Crew availability tightens around the October peak; pencil alternates for late-Nov/Dec gaps.
- Q1 2026 prep: Given the early read on January, treat Nov/Dec as planning months, front-load greenlight decisions and onboarding, especially for shows relocating or co-producing across borders.
- Keep an eye on policy headlines: Any tariff action that changes the math on non-US shoots could shift budgets, location choices, and release calendars on short notice. [‍](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-sets-10-tariff-lumber-imports-higher-rates-wooden-products-2025-09-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

### Notes and methodology

Figures reflect scripted, live-action projects across the US/UK/Canada. “New productions” = starts in-month; “smoothed” spreads budget over the active shoot to show market activity by month. September narrative and charts reference our September cut and an updated October forecast model for Q4. _Internal sources referenced: September ’25 Smart Production Tracking report and SPI launch plan._